SK hynix: Why We Believe SKHY Can Run to $780 a Share
Twenty-four years ago, a nearly bankrupt memory maker refused to be sold. Today it builds the memory AI can't run without. Here's why we believe its stock can quadruple by 2032.
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This note is research and personal opinion, not financial advice.
The short version
- In 2002, a debt-buried Hynix said no to a $3.5 billion takeover. Twelve years later, it built the world's first HBM, the stacked memory AI now runs on.
- AI and robots are hungry for memory, and SK hynix leads the kind that matters most.
- We believe demand keeps growing and that SKHY can run to $780 a share by 2032. Here's the math.
What if AI's biggest bottleneck isn't thinking, but remembering?
The day they said no
April 30, 2002. Hynix Semiconductor is barely alive. Memory prices have crashed, the banks it owes money to have taken control, and it’s carrying about $6.5 billion of debt.
On the table sits a lifeline from its American rival, Micron: Micron stock worth about $3.5 billion, plus a $200 million investment, in exchange for Hynix’s memory business. Taking it would make Micron the biggest memory maker in the world. It would also end Hynix.
The board votes. Unanimously, it says no. The CEO resigns (EDN). One headline at the time put it bluntly: “Hynix Hurts Itself by Rejecting Micron Offer” (TheStreet).
Twenty-four years later, that company, now called SK hynix, makes the memory that sits beside the most powerful AI chips on Earth. In just the last three months it reported, it earned $43.6 billion in operating profit. More than twelve times what Micron once offered for its memory business, earned in a single quarter.
That stubborn “no” is where our story starts. Since July 2026, anyone in the U.S. can own a piece of it through SKHY, its new Nasdaq shares. And we believe SKHY can run to $780 a share by 2032, about four times where it trades today.
Here’s our case.
The bottleneck is remembering
Every AI model does two things: it thinks, and it remembers. The thinking happens in processors like Nvidia’s. The remembering happens in memory chips, and that’s where SK hynix lives.
There are two main kinds. DRAM is short-term memory: fast, and it forgets when the power goes off. NAND is long-term storage: slower, but it remembers. The most important kind today is HBM, or high-bandwidth memory: DRAM chips stacked like a tiny skyscraper and placed right beside an AI processor so data can move at enormous speed.
An AI chip without enough fast memory is like a genius who can only read one word at a time. The smarter the models get, the more memory they need. And AI is leaving the screen. Every robot that sees, moves, and learns will need memory of its own.
So, what if AI’s biggest bottleneck isn’t thinking, but remembering? We think it already is. Look at where the money is going:
Demand like this doesn’t show up in one company’s sales by accident. The world is building AI as fast as it can, and every piece of it needs somewhere to remember.
Why SK hynix, and not someone else
Only three companies make most of the world’s DRAM: Samsung, Micron, and SK hynix (Wikipedia). So why do we believe SK hynix is the one to own? Because it has been preparing for this moment for a long time, usually while everyone else was counting it out.
- 1983Born inside Hyundai
Hyundai founder Chung Ju-yung starts a chip business called Hyundai Electronics.
- 1998A merger forced by a crisis
During the Asian financial crisis, Hyundai Electronics buys rival LG Semicon for $2.1 billion.
- 2001Renamed Hynix, and drowning in debt
Memory prices crash. Banks that lent it money take control of the company.
- 2002Turning pointIt says no to Micron
Its board rejects a takeover offer worth about $3.5 billion, choosing to stay independent while carrying about $6.5 billion of debt.
- 2003On its own
Hynix is formally separated from the Hyundai Group.
- 2012SK takes over
South Korea's SK Group buys Hynix for $3 billion and renames it SK hynix.
- 2014Turning pointThe first HBM
SK hynix and AMD develop the world's first HBM, years before AI made stacked memory famous.
- 2022Memory for Nvidia's AI chips
It starts mass-producing HBM3 for Nvidia systems, just before the AI boom takes off.
- 2023One more bust
A memory downturn pushes it to an operating loss of $5.6 billion.
- 2026TodayRecord profits, and a Nasdaq listing
AI demand for HBM drives the most profitable year in its history.
Sources: Wikipedia (1983–2012); EDN, April 30, 2002 (the Micron offer); SK hynix (HBM history); SK hynix 2023 results. Dollar figures for 1998–2012 are as reported at the time.
Two decisions made this company. In 2002, it refused to be sold. In 2014, it bet on stacked memory years before AI made it essential. When the AI boom arrived, SK hynix was the one ready to supply it.
That head start now shows up in how much money it keeps from every sale:
Source: SK hynix Q2 2026 results; DRAM/NAND split from the earnings slides, via Investing.com. Dollar figures in this note convert Korean won at 1,388 won per $1 (Federal Reserve, September 18, 2026), one rate for every year so trends stay accurate.
Out of every $100 of chips it sold, $76 was left over as operating profit. For a business that runs giant factories, that is almost unheard of. It also holds far more cash ($63.4 billion) than debt ($13.4 billion), so it can keep building no matter what the market does.
And it’s building. About 10 major customers have signed long-term supply deals with SK hynix. Its newest AI memory, HBM4, started shipping this year. The M15X factory is speeding up, and a new cleanroom at its Yongin site opens in early 2027 (SK hynix). Companies don’t build new factories for demand they think is about to disappear.
The road to $780
Here’s the math. A share price comes from three beliefs multiplied together: how much a company sells, how much of that it keeps as profit, and how much investors will pay for each dollar of profit.
The biggest of the three beliefs is the last one. Today, investors pay only about 11 times earnings for SK hynix, because they’ve watched memory boom and bust for decades. Those long-term contracts are what could change their minds. A steadier business earns a higher price.
What to watch for
Delusional optimists still keep their eyes open. Believing in where SK hynix is going doesn’t mean ignoring the road.
Memory prices. This industry has always moved in waves. Here’s what the last six years looked like:
2021: $8.9B. 2022: $5.0B. 2023: a loss of $5.6B. 2024: $16.9B. 2025: $34.0B. 2026, first half only: $70.7B.
Source: SK hynix annual results (2021–22, 2023, 2024–25, 2026). Converted at 1,388 won per $1 for every year.
In 2023, SK hynix lost $5.6 billion. Three years later, it earned more than twelve times that in six months. The waves are real. They’re also why the upside is so large: when prices hold, the profits are enormous.
Samsung and Micron. Both are racing to sell more HBM, and Samsung is gaining fast:
Source: Counterpoint Research, via Seoul Economic Daily. Micron's first-quarter figure is implied from the reported change; shares are rounded.
SK hynix still sells half the world’s HBM. A market growing this fast can make room for all three, as long as demand keeps outrunning supply.
HBM4. Analysts are watching whether SK hynix’s newest AI memory earns as much as the chips before it (Seoul Economic Daily).
2032
The world told Hynix its odds in 2002. It said no anyway. We think the story is just getting started.
Disclosure: I own SKHY shares. This note is my research and opinion, not financial advice. Do your own homework.
SK hynix Q2 2026 earningsThe latest quarter at a glance: sales, profit, cash, and what’s next→
Iso, Founder of Figmira